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  Estimated reading time: 2 minutes

On July 1st I moderated the panel discussion  «The future of the European electric vehicle (EV) market and the role of corporates and the public sector in electrifying their fleets« with selected European mobility experts.

Three experts from UK, Netherlands and Portugal gave an update on the current situation in their region. An open discussion with all speakers followed. The panel took place at the Smarter Mobility Europe Live event organized by Ben Pullen and hosted by Roger Atkins. A first-hand exchange of information for and with decision-makers was provided.

Panelists:

  • Mathijs van der Goot (Global lead electric vehicles, Leaseplan)
  • Penelope Guarnay, (Carbon Programme Manager, British Telecom)
  • Gonçalo Castelo Branco (Director of Smart Mobility, EDP Group)

My initial food-for-thought statement:

“Germany as a developping country for smart mobility is finallly waking up driven by Tesla, Dieselgate & COVID19. Now a broad consensus in society | politics | economics is evolving throughout Europe. We need a mobility revolution in order to preserve our personal mobility and autnomy.”

Discussion points

The results of our discussion and insights on the future of the European electric vehicle market:

Governments within most Europe countries decided to support and subsidise electric vehicles post COVID19. They support EV and sustainable public fleets and not like in the past Internal Combustion Engines (ICE). The waiting time for an electric vehicle can reach up to one year and OEMs are not able to fulfil the demand with the ongoing production challenges.

As a consequence, the market share of electric vehicles exceeds forecasts and expectations:

  • the global sales of electric vehicles surpassed 10% this year with Sweden, Norway and the Netherlands reaching 30-40%
  • the market share targets need to be updated every year as the demand is exponentially growing
  • the more people see and use it the more electric vehicles get accepted
  • Mandatory targets for the public sector for EV adoption (such as in France) support the EV adoption strongly
  • Corporate EV adoption by identifying superusers inside each company and identifying the most efficient charging options for each company

New challenges that come along with the rapid transformation have to evaluated and adjusted:

  • There is by far not enough public charging infrastructure. Not everyone has a garage or space to charge their car at home. Heavy investment in infrastructure is needed
  • The energy grids cannot manage the energy demand if everyone wants to charge their car at the same time. Governments need to step up and implement a smart energy system that supports grid readiness as well as local energy production (e.g. photovoltaics)
  • The government needs an ambitious policy framework to address the current barriers to EVs.

Statements of the panel

 

Mathijs van der Goot:

“The ‘soft/cultural’ aspects of the EV adoption are very challenging: most driver are hesitant to make a change and want to keep what they already have. For fast tracking EV adoption (1) the support from senior management of a company, (2) local EV champions and (3) the right EV policy are therefore key for supporting this change.”

 

Penelope Guarnay:

The UK Government have set a target to try and give superfast fibre to all households by 2025, it is a ‘herculean task’ for BT, in response to this, the mileage our engineers drive could potentially increase as we look to meet this target. Transitioning our fleet to Electric Vehicles will ensure that our fleet won’t contribute to any increase in Carbon emissions.

This year at BT we set a Remuneration target linked to our carbon performance, this underlines why it is essential for to BT continuously work towards reducing our direct emissions. With fleet accounting for approximately 70% of our emissions we need to actively address this.

 

Gonçalo Castelo Branco:

“Corporate EV Adoption Guide as an important tool to support fleet managers in commercial decisions regarding fleets and showing the benefits – financial and environmental – of an early EV adoption.

Conclusion – and my final question to the panel and audience 

The future prospects of e-mobility must be viewed holistically. All transport modes and distance ranges must be examined and characterised in terms of their requirements for e-mobility. In the future, both technologies will coexist side by side. Battery-powered electric vehicles are highly efficient for short distances and low loads. On the other hand, fuel cells are strong enough for long distances and high loads.

COVID-19 is an accelerator for the electrification of the drivetrain. Global EV sales grow exponentially. Public-fleets transform quicker than expected to electric drivetrains. OEMs can not fulfil the recent demand or still have not enough EV models on the market. Sustainable and stable energy grids combined with heavy investments in the needed infrastructure will be the main drivers of electric vehicles. One thing is certain: the future is electric.

 

Final question: What is your estimate of electric vehicles market share in 2030 across Europe?
(Voting by 68 participants of the conference)

 

 

#coronarampup #reboot #automotiveindustry #EV #Fleet #smartmobility #Europe


Author: Dr. oec. Hans-Peter Kleebinder

 

Estimated reading time: 1 minute

On Mai 28th I moderated the «Corona Situation Room #2« with selected experts from the automotive industry in China and EU with 94% of the Chineses industry back on track (Accenture 19.05.20).

COVID-19 laid the ground for this new format of the CAR Institute, organizer of leading conferences of the automotive and mobility industry in Germany and China. Especially the global automotive industry with open markets as well as international supply chains and just-in-time strategy is facing extraordinary challenges. This initiative aims to offer orientation and support for the automotive industry in managing the COVID-19 crisis and improving the German-Chinese economic cooperation.

One expert from China and one from Germany, as well as two industry leaders, gave an update on the current situation. An open discussion with all speakers followed.

The briefing took place in an exclusive round (by invitation only) and provided a first-hand exchange of information for and with decision-makers direct from the Huawei Open Lab in Munich.

Core questions

  1. How do supply chains before/after Corona look like, how do I deal with supply-critical suppliers and countries?
  2. What digital-driven opportunities are there to make up for lost potential after the shutdowns?
  3. How can digital solutions help to make supply-chains more robust?
  4. How can digital solutions improve collaboration within the automotive industry and (OEMs & suppliers) with a focus on China and EU?
  5. How do I prevent delivery bottlenecks and production downtime?
  6. What are best-practices and learnings from CATARC, IBM and HUAWEI?

Speakers

  • Prof. Ferdinand Dudenhöffer (Director CAR Center Automotive Research)
  • Guanqi Hao (Chief Representative Office Germany, CATARC)
  • Dr. Cesim Demir (CTO Manufacturerand Automotive Solutions, Huawei)
  • Dirk Wollschläger (General Manager Global Automotive, IBM)

Discussion points

The results of our discussion and insights on supply chain & digitization:

Information and communication technology is the blood- & nerve-vein for a digitized Industry 4.0. Headlights on functional digital infrastructure (Cloud Infrastructure and digital Eco-Systems) as a success factor.

As a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic the focus of supply chain management changes from:

  • sustainability to agility
  • compliance to resilience management.
  • traceability of goods in transit to predicting logistic lead time
  • Just-in-Time to Just-in-Case real-time solutions

New challenges in the field of supply chain management are to evaluate and adjust. Sourcing strategies, AI and blockchain will profit from COVID-19

Final question from Hans-Peter Kleebinder:

How will the supply chain look like in 2025, considering the transformation speed increases with Corona acts as an accelerator?

Cesim Demir:
“In 2025 All Connected Artificial Intelligence Logistics (ACAIL) will significantly reduce the transport of components with 3D printing technologies. It is not components that are sent from A to B, but data so that these components can be produced on site.”

Dirk Wollschläger:
By 2025 almost 100% of Supply Chain workflows will be either automated or augmented by artificial intelligence.”

Guanqi Hao:
“There will be a global supply chain that will change the world and our lives through digitalization. We need to be prepared for that, and that may happen faster than we can imagine.”

Ferdinand Dudenhöffer:
“We will see an intelligent and smart supply chain. The data will be transmitted in real-time using 5G standard and solutions will be developed simultaneously as well as implemented in real-time.”

Conclusion – after 2 Corona Situation Rooms on Logistics & Supply Chain

COVID-19 shows us the vulnerability of our global automotive industry, which is based on the division of labour, optimization of manufacturing, and especially labour costs and just-in-time production leading to global supply chains and logistics. Intelligent supply chain management is the enabler and blood- & nerve vein. Digitization will be the main driver combined with artificial intelligence and blockchain technology as well as 3-D printing technology.

#coronarampup #reboot #automotiveindustry

 


Author: Dr. oec. Hans-Peter Kleebinder

Result Blog Corona Situation Room #1 with focus on Logistics

Relevant Background Blog: China: The new global automotive leader

Information:  https://digital.car-future.com/

Estimated reading time: 2 minutes

On April 29th I moderated the first “Corona Situation Room” with selected experts from the automotive industry in China and EU.

The reason for this new format of the CAR Institute, organizer of leading conferences of the automotive and mobility industry in Germany and China, is the COVID19 crisis. Especially the global automotive industry with open markets as well as international supply chains and just-in-time strategy is facing extraordinary challenges. This initiative aims to offer orientation and support for the automotive industry in managing the COVID19 crisis and to improve the German-Chinese economic cooperation.

One expert from China and one from Germany, as well as a company representative, gave an update on the current situation. An open discussion with all speakers followed them.

Agenda corona situation room

Agenda Welcome and Introduction: Dr. Hans-Peter Kleebinder (University St. Gallen), Keynote speech Prof. Ferdinand Dudenhöffer (University St. Gallen), Keynote speech Zhixin Wu (VP Catarc), Keynote speech Erich Staake (CEO Duisburger Hafen AG), Discussion round, Conclusion and Closing: Dr. Hans-Peter Kleebinder (University St. Gallen)

The briefing took place in an exclusive round (by invitation only) and will provide a first-hand exchange of information for and with decision-makers on current issues such as production, supply chain implications, digitization, and market demand trends.

Core questions

  1. Production and supply chains in Germany and China in times of Corona. What experiences have been made in China and Europe since the crisis broke out?
  2. What are the new challenges in the field of logistics?
  3. Case study Duisburg Port on German-Chinese cooperation in logistics
  4. What possibilities and measures are there to make up for lost potential after the shutdowns?

Speakers

Discussion points

  • Will the trend towards globalization continue to increase or decrease?
  • What effects on the vertical range of manufacture and production costs can be expected?
  • How will a change in supply chains change logistics processes in the future, such as the principle of “just-in-time” and delivery routes air, rail, road, and water?

Zhixin Wu reported on the establishment of a new data management system to optimize and secure supply chains in China, the extension of state BEV funding and announced measures to optimize standards for the European automotive industry.

Erich Staake reported on the first train that arrived from Wuhan in Duisburg 10 days ago since the outbreak of the COVID crisis, the trend that more finished products are currently being transported by rail to China and the potential for optimizing the capacity utilization of freight trains in both directions.

Ferdinand Dudenhöffer predicted that China will emerge stronger from the COVID crisis as the locomotive of the global automotive industry. The USA remains unpredictable. Just in time will stay with stronger risk coverage and digitalization of the logistics chain.

Conclusion

Corona shows us the vulnerability of our global economic system, which is based on the division of labour, optimization of manufacturing, and especially labour costs, just-in-time production, and low-cost logistics processes.

60% of the participants came from China, 40% from Europe. Representatives from IBM, NIO, BMW, Huawei, CFLD German Desk, China Fortune Land Development, China International Promotion Agency, etc.

The final mood barometer among the 24 participants produced the following result:

How do you personally assess business development in the next 3 months?

Result

  • 8% optimistic
  • 55% cautiously optimistic
  • 33% pessimistic
  • 4% very pessimistic

#coronarampup #reboot #automotiveindustry

The «Situation Room #2« will be on May 28th 11am (CET).

Information and application  https://digital.car-future.com/

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Author: Dr. oec. Hans-Peter Kleebinder

Relevant Blog: China: The new global automotive leader

Convinced and committed to their cause.  (…) Your impulse speeches and the ensuing debate will mark the end of the two-day German Media Congress. There are about one and a half hours full of facts and arguments, also with polemics and populism, but – and this has to be emphasized nowadays – always respectful in tone. (…)

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